Tuesday, August 12, 2014

Interesting observations from a hospital room

Recently, at the hospital, I was entertained on a rather long stay, as my wife had our 4th child, Lincoln.  It is always fascinating to be able to discuss people with people in different careers/situations.  I found the nurses to be excellent sources of observations.


Observation #1 - This year had the most babies born (in the last 20 years)

Observation #2 - Most of the babies born this year are first children


This is really interesting as this reflects the generational cohorts.  These children being born are the first children of the Generation Y and the grand kids of Baby Boomers.  The oldest members of the Gen Y are now entering their late 20s and early 30s.  Ottawa has more late baby boomers (between 45 and 55) than early baby boomers (55 to 65).  

This should lead to a extended period of higher child births, providing Gen Y has multiple children.  Evidence shows there is a good chance many Gen Y cohort members will only have one child.  There was recently an articles about Canadian income and how 78% of income goes to essentials and taxes, this may also influence smaller families.


I also had a discussion with a soccer club executive that had two more interesting observations:


Observation #1 - There were hundreds less kids signed up for soccer this year versus last year

Observation #2 - Significantly less children born in 2009 than 2010


This is interesting as a soccer club has programs from 3 years old to 21.  This is a huge age range of 18 years.  The drop in kids playing soccer is due to less kids being enrolled in younger age groups.  This is directly correlated to less children born in the younger and the exit of higher birth numbered years at the top of the age cycle.

Fascinating to see the generational cohorts coming into fruition, following long term predictions from experts.
In 2009, less kids were born due to the economic crisis.  This is now reflected in class room sizes and soccer enrollments. 

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